Betting on Totals
With bets offered so many different ways on so many different sports, it’s no surprise that total betting can often get overlooked. This should never happen though, as betting on the total of games can be an outstanding betting option. You’ll see that many, many times as games get closer to starting, that the total is going to move around more than even the spread will. The total in sports like the NBA and NFL are really where you see the most movements, with NCAABB and NCAAFB being right up there as well. These sports obviously have more points scored, so seeing a game’s total move a half point or two isn’t always a huge deal, but if you see a baseball total or a hockey total move a half run/goal or a full run/goal, then that’s a pretty big deal, and is something to watch for.
There are many different ways to look for strong betting options in the different sports, and we’ll break it down below more in-depth. The most important thing though is that when you are looking at totals, you should definitely not be betting on an under just because you think the number is too high, or betting on a number because you think it’s too low. It’s just like one of the most popular sports betting quotes says- “if the line looks wrong, it probably isn’t.” This seems to happen a ton in total betting, and just because an over/under in an NBA game is at 215, that doesn’t mean that it’s too high, as there’s probably a reason for it.
Just like anything else in sports betting, research is going to be huge. You need to see how teams have been scoring, how the opposing defenses have been, and find any possible angles that you can that will help you put down a good bet. Things like injuries, weather, and fatigue are all factors, and we’ll look more at those below. Total betting can be great, but you need to be careful not to just throw bets around without having knowledge of the bet and doing research on the game itself first. Let’s break down total betting more here, and look at just a few of the things that you should be considering.
Watching Line Movements
Very, very big in my opinion, is how you see the total move. While I won’t automatically put a bet down if I see a total move on one sports betting site on an NBA game from 198 up to 200, but I’ll definitely look at that game immediately, and not only see if I can get the bet down on that 200 for the over (since it moved up), but also see if one of the other betting sites that I use has the number still at 198 to take advantage of. Totals are going to move so much in sports like the NBA, NCAABB, NCAAFB, and NFL, and you need to have your eyes locked in on those to find the best spots. The NFL and NCAAFB are definitely the most interesting as you’ll have an entire week in most situations to watch the total and see how it moves.
Injuries and Weather
While basketball and hockey aren’t going to be affected by weather, you’ll find that injuries play a key role in these sports more than any other sport really. With fewer players playing at a time, it’s important to note if a key player is likely to not play, or if both teams are going to be missing some key defensive players or strong offensive players. This can definitely help you get a bet down before the line moves, especially if a player is announced to be out and injured just an hour or two before the game begins, and it’s a bit of a surprise.
As far as weather goes, you see it happen late in the NFL and NCAAFB season as the weather outside can play a huge role. Once things start getting cold out there and we even see heavy rain and snow at times, it makes betting on unders a whole lot easier. I wouldn’t rely on the weather early in the week for this, but checking out the weather before you place your bets an hour or two before game time is probably a great idea. Check into the weather sporadically throughout the week, but wait until the day of to finalize any decisions on weather bets.
Fatigue is so big in some sports, mainly the ones like hockey, basketball, and baseball. You don’t see a ton of fatigue from field players in baseball usually, but if a pitcher is pitching on short notice then looking at the over in those spots can definitely be a good starting point. For the NBA and NHL though, they play a ton of games, and at times are going to end up playing back to back games, or even 3 games in four nights at times. These are going to have a whole lot to do with the total, and you’ll have to research their opponent more before deciding which side that you want to get your bet down, if at all.