MLB Baseball Betting: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

Added September 29, 2015 by Levi Watkins

The Major League Baseball season is winding down and most of the postseason spots have been secured. In this game, the best and worst of the NL East face off as the Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets. The New York Mets have already clinched the NL East Championship while Philadelphia is trying to avoid finishing with the worst record in baseball. Despite having already locked up the divisional title the Mets have continued to play well while the Phillies have continued to play poorly. They can still catch the Atlanta Braves and/or Cincinnati Reds and avoid the dubious distinction of being the worst team in the sport but they really haven’t shown much drive to do so. Philadelphia has lost 7 of their last 10 games while the Mets have won 6 of 10.

David Buchanan gets the start tonight for the home team and he’s been roughed up badly all year long. Buchanan has a 7.96 ERA though his home ERA is slightly better (relatively speaking at least) at 6.87. He’s not pitched well and his teammates haven’t given him much help. The Phillies have lost 9 of Buchanan’s 11 starts this season including 5 of 7 at home and his last three assignments.

The Mets will counter with veteran Bartolo Colon who is well past his prime but still effective at ‘eating innings’. Colon has a 4.17 ERA as a starter and a 4.48 road ERA. The Mets have split his 30 starts overall and have won 8 of his 15 starts. Colon has a perfect matchup here as New York has brutalized the Phillies not only this year but for several seasons. This season, the Mets are 14-2 +10.6 units against the Phillies including a 6-1 +4.8 unit record at Philadelphia. Over the past three seasons, the Mets are 37-17 +20.4 units against Philadelphia and 20-6 +17.2 units against the Phillies on the road.

It’s always tough laying a big price with a road favorite but there’s no alternative in this game. The Phillies are in poor form, their starting pitcher tonight has been woefully ineffective and the Mets have flat out dominated Philadelphia in virtually every situational breakdown. This might not be a huge game for the Mets but they’re the team with the better pedigree.


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