MLB Baseball Betting: Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

Added September 01, 2015 by Levi Watkins

Despite losing two of three in Interleague action at Boston over the weekend the New York Mets are on the verge of running away with the NL East. The Mets are currently 6.5 games up on the Washington Nationals and have been in superlative form, winning 8 of their last 10 games including last night’s opening contest in this series. They’ll play the second game of a three game set with the Phillies tonight at CitiField before a road trip with stops in Miami and what could be a division clinching series in Washington early next week.

The Phillies have been the worst team in baseball all season long though their play has improved somewhat since the All Star Break. They went on a strong run in late July/early August and now have a chance to avoid finishing with the worst record in the majors. In fact, they have a realistic chance to finish as high as third in the NL East with Miami and Atlanta just one and three games ahead respectively. The Phillies may not be a good team but they’re far from the doormats that they were to start the season.

Philadelphia will start Aaron Harang and the veteran journeyman has pitched like you’d expect a pitcher of his status to pitch on a weak team. On the road, Harang has a 5.40 ERA and the Phillies have lost 8 of his 11 starts. The Mets will counter with veteran lefthander Jon Niese who has been mediocre at best this season and hit hard in his recent assignments. Niese has a 7.79 ERA in his last three starts though the Mets did manage to win two of those.

The kneejerk reaction is to lay the price on the Mets who are clearly the better team. But the ‘kneejerk’ reaction isn’t a profitable plan betting baseball in the long run. The Phillies have made a nice profit against lefthanders this season despite a record of just 13-15–that equates to a +7 unit profit which is typical of teams that the public dismissed long ago. We’ll take a shot on the road team at a big price–the Mets can afford to ‘take their foot off the gas’ for just one game and this looks like a perfect spot.


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