MLB Baseball Betting: San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

Added August 16, 2015 by Levi Watkins

Some sporting events are described as ‘must see TV’. This one isn’t. This could be billed as a battle to avoid last place in the NL West but it’s not even that–the Colorado Rockies are sinking like a stone and look to have the dubious distinction of being the worst team in their division ‘locked up’. The Padres aren’t playing good baseball but they’re the 1975 Cincinnati Reds by comparison holding an 8 game advantage over the lowly Rockies. If the Rockies had any fight in them they might be motivated by the desire to avoid being the worst team in baseball–they hold a 1 game advantage over Philadelphia and Miami–but it’s unlikely that they’re doing anything other than playing out the string.

At one point in their history, the Rockies had a reputation for being awful on the road and tough at home. Now they’re bad at home and worse on the road. YTD, Colorado is 25-31 -8.2 units at Coors Field. That’s bad enough but the fact that they’ve lost “only” 8.2 units is a sign that the marketplace has caught up to their poor play at home. When the public finally catches on to something like this, that’s a really bad sign for a team.

Colorado has lost six straight games and in theory this is a good chance for them to get off this downturn streak. San Diego is looking for a sweep and the first thing that baseball handicappers learn is that betting against a sweep is a longterm winning strategy. San Diego isn’t much but they’ve made money on the road this year (30-32 +1.3 units) and have turn a profit against left handed pitching–they’re 15-11 +3.4 units and actually have a decent output against southpaws. That’s significant for an offense often derided as ‘Triple A level’. Chris Rusin isn’t a lefthander that should intimate them. He’s one of those guys that might be a decent MLB pitcher for a good team but the Rockies are 4-9 when he starts this season (though 4-2 at Coors Field).

Simply put, this Padres team has a lot more upside than Colorado. They’ve won 4 of their last 6 and have a plus .500 record against losing teams. They should complete the sweep here.


You might also like: