MLB Baseball Betting: Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

Added September 16, 2015 by Levi Watkins

Is it ‘too little too late’ for the Washington Nationals? Maybe, but they’re not going down without a fight. Following a five game losing streak which appeared to shut the door on the Nats’ chances for postseason play they’ve bounced back to win three straight including the first two games of this series. They’ll try to complete the sweep over the lowly Phillies with a win on Wednesday night. Washington is still a longshot to make the playoffs–they would have to run down the NL East leading New York Mets who hold a 8.5 game lead and have won 8 of their last 10. They’ve got the perfect opponent in the Phillies, however, as Philadelphia is currently the worst team in baseball. The Atlanta Braves aren’t far ahead but the Phillies have returned to their pitiful ways following a winning run immediately after the All Star Break. Philadelphia has won only 7 of their last 10 games.

For all of their flaws this is a profitable situation for Philadelphia. They’ve made a tiny profit at home this season (33-41 +0.5 units) and a bigger profit against lefthanded pitching. Against southpaws the Phillies are 15-17 but that’s good for +8.5 units of profit. They’ll face a good one today in Gio Gonzalez although he’s not been in his best form this season. Gonzalez has an overall ERA of 3.88 and a 4.61 ERA on the road. He’s been very sharp in his recent outings with a 2.08 L3 ERA but the Nationals managed to lose two of those three starts.

The only reason we can’t call for a stronger position on the Phillies is the struggles of starting pitcher Alec Asher. Asher has been brutalized in his three starts since being called up on September 1–three starts, three Phillies losses and a 10.67 ERA. Note that he’s averaging nearly 5 innings per start despite that horrible stat line meaning the Phillies are leaving him in there to take his lumps in hopes of more quickly acclimating him to MLB hitters.

Still, betting against the sweep is a long term profitable concept and even with Asher’s struggles the price on Washington is just too high given the team’s erratic form.


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