NBA Betting: Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs

Added June 05, 2014 by Levi Watkins

The NBA Finals are upon us and the matchup isn’t exactly a surprise. The defending champion Miami Heat are back despite looking lethargic and unfocused at various points during the postseason. Despite never really giving the impression that they’re playing their ‘A Game’–at least not on a consistent basis–they’ve had very little trouble advancing to this point having won 12 of 15 playoff games going 10-5 against the spread. San Antonio overcame a determined effort from the Dallas Mavericks in the first round needing 7 games to eliminate their in-state rival. They then went on to run roughshod over the Portland Trailblazers and Oklahoma City Thunder to return to the finals for the second straight season. Since the end of the Dallas series the Spurs have won and covered 8 of their 11 games.

Tony Parker tweaked his ankle in the late stages of the series with Oklahoma City but every indication is that he’ll play here (he’s listed as ‘probable’). Assuming that he can remain healthy throughout this series the Spurs will give the Heat a formidable challenge. San Antonio was a few seconds away from winning the NBA title last season and this year’s team has looked even better throughout the regular season. San Antonio finished with the best regular season record in the NBA and will have home court advantage throughout. Miami is a highly confident team when playing on the road so it might not mean as much against the Heat than it would against other opponents. The Spurs are 41-10 SU in San Antonio this year but just 28-23 against the spread.

At first glance the line for Game 1 looks a bit high and taking Miami as a 4′ point underdog looks attractive. The market has pushed this line up from an opening price of -4 and it has gone as high as -5 at some books. In many ways this isn’t surprising given the makeup of the two teams. Miami has a track record of starting slowly in a series while we expect San Antonio to come out strong. The Spurs know the importance of not falling behind in the series and want to put the pressure on the Heat by making them play catch up in the series. We think they’ll do that with a Game One win and cover.


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