NBA Betting Picks: San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat

Added June 12, 2014 by Levi Watkins

The ‘bad’ Miami Heat showed up in Game 3–that’s the team that thinks they can ‘turn it on and off’ when they want because they’re so talented–and the San Antonio Spurs rubbed their faces in it. The Spurs dominated the game from the opening tip off and withstood the inevitable Heat ‘it’s time to turn it on’ rally to win 111-92 and take a 2-1 lead in the best of 7 NBA Finals Series. Game 4 is back in Miami tonight and is something of a ‘must win’ for the Heat lest they head back to San Antonio down 3-1.

The modus operandi of this Heat team is becoming well known and in many ways is an extension of LeBron James’ play. Both LeBron and the Heat are at their best coming off of a loss. For Heat watchers this isn’t a surprise since a loss is one of the few ways to get this team to focus and ‘get in’ to a game from the opening tip. The numbers are pretty impressive, however. LeBron James has now lost 48 postseason games in his NBA career. In those games LeBron’s PPG stats aren’t much different (a 1 point improvement after a loss) but his team’s W/L record is 33-15 (68.8%). That is a straight up record, of course, and we’ve got to deal with the pointspread but it does serve to validate our take on how the Heat approach their craft. From a pointspread standpoint the results are equally as impressive–this year the Heat are 1-0 ATS in the playoffs when trailing in a series and since 2012 are 9-0 SU/8-1 ATS.

San Antonio is a much more consistent team but that has a downside–in a matchup between a talented team playing with ‘urgency’ and a talented team on more of an even keel the difference in the mental approach can make a difference. This season San Antonio hasn’t been particularly impressive when leading in a playoff series with a record of 5-6 SU/5-6 ATS. At first glance it appears that the way to play this game is to take the points with a very talented Spurs team but the statistical data indicates otherwise. We’ll look for the Heat to wake up tonight with a win and cover.


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