NBA Finals Betting: San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat

Added June 10, 2014 by Levi Watkins

The Miami Heat woke up in Game 2 after they were manhandled by the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 of the NBA Finals and as a result the series is deadlocked at 1-1. Action now shifts to Miami with Games 3 and 4 at the American Airlines Arena. From a handicapping standpoint the first two games didn’t exactly reveal anything new about these teams–probably not surprising since we know these teams so well and they know each other so well.

Our gripe with the Miami Heat is the same as it’s been for most of the past two seasons. The Heat’s biggest issue is that they *know* how talented they are. As a result, they think they can ‘turn it on’ at will. Not only do they seldom play their best game during the regular season but this year they’ve not looked fully engaged during much of the postseason. On the other hand, they’ve put up good numbers this postseason both SU and against the spread. The Heat are 13-4 SU/11-6 ATS which is somewhat surprising given that the ‘eye tests’ suggests that they haven’t played their ‘best game’ for long stretches. Of course that could be a counterintuitive reason why that is the case–the betting public and linesmakers *expect* them to play this way and the lines on their games have been adjusted accordingly.

The Spurs, on the other hand, can usually be counted on for a more consistent effort–at least during the postseason. They’re well known for ‘managing’ the regular season and they may have suffered some hangover from that during the early stages of the playoffs when they were taken to 7 games by a Dallas team they should have dispatched with ease. Since they they’ve gone 9-4 SU/ATS–and you can make a pretty compelling case that they’ve faced a higher level of competition (Portland and OKC) than Miami (Charlotte and Indiana).

Bottom line–we’re not sold on Miami. Not on their talent, of course, but on their focus. Their toughness and ferocity only becomes apparent when they’re behind in a series and tied at 1-1 with the next two games at home they may revert back into overconfidence mode. Even if they don’t, we’d rather have the Spurs plus the points.


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