College Football Betting: Boise State at Air Force

Added September 27, 2014 by Levi Watkins

Mountain Time Zone football at it’s finest as the Boise State Broncos head to Colorado Springs, Colorado (actually a few miles North) to take on the Air Force Academy at Falcon Stadium. Boise State is off to a decent start this season–they’ve won three straight games (Colorado State, at UConn, UL-Lafayette) following an opening game loss to SEC entrant Ole Miss. They’re also 3-1 against the pointspread covering all three of their outright wins. Air Force is 2-1 SU/1-2 ATS but that could be a bit of the proverbial ‘smoke and mirrors’. The Falcons’ wins came against Nicholls State at home and at Georgia State. The loss came at Laramie against Wyoming.

Boise State is seldom priced accurately on a national basis. That’s typical of most of the teams in the Mountain Time Zone even if they’ve got an impressive legacy of success and a unique blue field. Boise is definitely not the only ‘incorrectly priced’ team in the region (hint: Utah is *seriously* underrated) but they’re the best known. For that reason they can’t win–in a given year if they’re competitive against ‘the big boys’ they get overrated by the linesmakers and bettors. If they’re not a BCS Championship contender but have success in the Mountain West Conference they ‘haven’t played anyone’ and get underrated.

That’s where Boise State is at this year. The narrative nationally is that Chris Petersen left for the University of Washington because ‘the cupboard was bare’ in Boise following a substandard 8-4 record. That really isn’t the case and neither is the belief that Bryan Harsin is a huge downgrade. Obviously he doesn’t have Petersen’s ‘rep’ yet but he’s a highly respected coach that served as the Broncos offensive coordinator from 2006 to 2010. All the Broncos did during his tenure was going 62-5 SU and becoming a legit national power.

This isn’t a prototypical Air Force team in that they pass the ball a lot more than usual for an option team. This isn’t necessarily a good sign–option teams pass when they don’t have the personnel to run over opponents. Kale Pearson isn’t a bad quarterback but he’s 5’9″ and that’s not going to get it done against Boise’s class of athletes.


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