College Football Betting: Oregon at California

Added October 24, 2014 by Levi Watkins

Pac 12 action in the last of four Friday night college football games with Oregon heading down the coast to take on the University of California. The Ducks are once again atop the conference standings and ranked #6 nationally. Oregon is 6-1 SU this year but just 3-4 against the pointspread. They’re coming off of two straight SU/ATS wins since their upset loss to Arizona. California looked great early on but have reverted to more sloppy play of late. They’re 4-3 SU/5-2 ATS but are miles ahead of last year’s 1-11 Bears squad. California is coming off a wild 36-34 loss to UCLA though they got the money as +6′ point underdogs.

Oregon’s loss may have been very fortuitous, at least for those of us who worry about pointspreads. It caused their ‘public perception’ to take a hit which gets baked into the line which gives us extra value playing on the Ducks. This happens a lot with West Coast teams–they don’t get the attention they deserve from the national media and since they play late at night (East Coast time) no one actually watches their game. That means that the last impression that the ‘man on the street’ has of this Ducks’ team is watching the highlights from their loss to Arizona and listening to the ESPN talking heads chortle about the upset.

This is a horrible matchup for Cal, primarily because their defense is awful. The Bears are ranked #121 in total defense allowing 525 yards per game. Only UNLV, Western Kentucky, Bowling Green and SMU are ranked lower. Cal is ranked #117 in scoring defense giving up 38.4 PPG. That includes their best performance of the year opening night against Northwestern and a game against Sacramento State. Factor those out of the equation and Cal has allowed 46.2 PPG in their last five games which would put then next to last in the NCAA rankings just ahead of SMU.

Cal’s Jared Goff is an excellent quarterback but that Jake Mariotta guy that plays for the Ducks is better. The Ducks might not be Ole Miss or Alabama on defense but they’re still better than Cal. Cal can’t win a ‘shootout’ with the Ducks and with their pitiful defense that’s what should happen here.


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