Monday Night Football: Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers

Added September 28, 2015 by Levi Watkins

A very interesting non-conference game ‘on paper’ will take place tonight at Lambeau Field as the Green Bay Packers host the Kansas City Chiefs. The Packers are a perfect 2-0 to start the season while the Chiefs are 1-1 and coming off a tough loss to divisional rivals Denver. Green Bay, meanwhile, is coming off one of their biggest revenge wins in a number of years beating the Seattle Seahawks at home last weekend.

At first glance, this number looks a bit inflated. Assuming Green Bay has an average home field advantage (and realizing that it might be slightly above average) this would suggest that the Packers are 9 points better than the Chiefs on a neutral field. That’s a tough sell right there. These teams don’t play often but the Chiefs are 7-2-1 all time against the Packers including wins/covers in four of the last five. These franchises have a lot of history against each other. Don’t forget that they were the participants in the first ever Super Bowl game (won of course by Vince Lombardi and the Packers). Kansas City has also covered eight of their last thirteen spots as an underdog. That’s more than negated by the fact that Green Bay has covered 16 of their last 24 as a favorite.

Eddie Lacy should be back in the lineup for Green Bay tonight but we’re concerned about the ‘hangover’ effect of that big win over Seattle. More significantly, we’re thinking that it might be reflected in the price on this game. The public reacts to what they’ve seen most recently. And most recently, they saw the Packers beating the Seahawks and the Chiefs losing to the Broncos. We’re now thinking that Denver is a better team than we had originally thought which somewhat softens the blow of the KC loss to the Broncos. We’ll go against the public here and take the points with Kansas City. They’ve got to quickly get back on track in a tough division while Green Bay can afford to feel pretty good about themselves at this point. And that’s a dangerous mentality for any NFL team to have and especially one laying almost a touchdown against a solid opponent.


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