NHL Hockey Betting: Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals

Added March 07, 2015 by Levi Watkins

Everyone in the public and the linesmaking office is expecting a mismatch in this game. In fact, this is one of the bigger prices you’ll ever see in NHL betting. The Washington Capitals are currently in control of the top wild card spot in the Eastern Conference and within striking distance of the three teams ahead of them in the Metropolitan Division. The Capitals have 80 points and are chasing the Islanders (87 points), the New York Rangers (85 points) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (83 points). They’ve got some breathing room in the rear view mirror with Boston eight points behind in the wildcard standings and Philadelphia twelve points back in the divisional standings. The Capitals haven’t been in great form lately–Alex Ovechkin missed the last game and is a ‘game time decision’ here. Washington is a solid but not spectacular 6-4-0 in their last 10 games.

For Buffalo, it’s all about Connor McDavid. McDavid is the once-in-a-generation talent that is almost certain to go first in the NHL draft this year. His impact has been compared to players like Gretzky, Lemeiumx and Sidney Crosby. The team with the worst record in the league will have the best chance of getting the #1 pick in the lottery. Buffalo wants to make sure that they’re the worst team and have the best chance at McDavid. The Sabres are four points ahead…er…behind Edmonton for the worst record in the league so all they need to do is make sure that they don’t play as well as the Oilers down the stretch.

Were it as easy as just ‘picking the winner’ there would be a lot more people living in big houses on golf courses in Las Vegas. You’ve got to factor in the valuation and that’s where it gets tougher to pull the trigger on the Capitals. Theoretical ‘breakeven’ at -450 is over 80% and you’re not going to make money if you need to win 80% of your bets. We’ll hold our nose and take a shot on the Sabres. Not because we like the team but because the price is right. They’ve played fairly well against the Caps in recent years and have won the only head to head meeting so far this season.


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